OpenAI $1T+ valuation in 2026?

Close 12/31/2026 · 12:00:00 AM · Probability 74.0% · Volume 10,570.233 · Market ↗

OpenAI $1T+ valuation in 2026? · Market timeline chart

2026? (74% Yes)
Volume
Probability (%)VolumeTime0%25%50%75%100%02.6K5.3K7.9K10.6KMar 24, 11:14 PMMar 27, 9:26 PMMar 30, 7:37 PMApr 2, 5:48 PMApr 5, 4:00 PMMar 31, 10:00 PM | volume 9.8KApr 1, 12:00 AM | volume 9.8KApr 1, 2:00 AM | volume 9.8KApr 1, 4:00 AM | volume 9.8KApr 1, 6:00 AM | volume 9.8KApr 1, 8:00 AM | volume 9.8KApr 1, 10:00 AM | volume 9.8KApr 1, 12:00 PM | volume 9.8KApr 1, 2:00 PM | volume 9.8KApr 1, 4:00 PM | volume 9.8KApr 1, 6:00 PM | volume 9.8KApr 1, 8:00 PM | volume 9.8KApr 1, 10:00 PM | volume 9.8KApr 2, 12:00 AM | volume 9.8KApr 2, 2:00 AM | volume 9.8KApr 2, 4:00 AM | volume 9.8KApr 2, 6:00 AM | volume 9.8KApr 2, 8:00 AM | volume 9.9KApr 2, 10:00 AM | volume 9.9KApr 2, 12:00 PM | volume 9.9KApr 2, 2:00 PM | volume 9.9KApr 2, 4:00 PM | volume 9.9KApr 2, 6:00 PM | volume 10.1KApr 2, 8:00 PM | volume 10.1KApr 2, 10:00 PM | volume 10.2KApr 3, 12:00 AM | volume 10.2KApr 3, 2:00 AM | volume 10.2KApr 3, 4:00 AM | volume 10.2KApr 3, 6:00 AM | volume 10.2KApr 3, 8:00 AM | volume 10.2KApr 3, 10:00 AM | volume 10.3KApr 3, 12:00 PM | volume 10.3KApr 3, 2:00 PM | volume 10.3KApr 3, 4:00 PM | volume 10.4KApr 3, 6:00 PM | volume 10.4KApr 3, 8:00 PM | volume 10.4KApr 3, 10:00 PM | volume 10.5KApr 4, 12:00 AM | volume 10.6KApr 4, 2:00 AM | volume 10.6KApr 4, 4:00 AM | volume 10.6KApr 4, 6:00 AM | volume 10.6KApr 4, 8:00 AM | volume 10.6KApr 4, 10:00 AM | volume 10.6KApr 4, 12:00 PM | volume 10.6KApr 4, 2:00 PM | volume 10.6KApr 4, 4:00 PM | volume 10.6KApr 4, 6:00 PM | volume 10.6KApr 4, 8:00 PM | volume 10.6KApr 4, 10:00 PM | volume 10.6KApr 5, 12:00 AM | volume 10.6KApr 5, 2:00 AM | volume 10.6KApr 5, 4:00 AM | volume 10.6KApr 5, 6:00 AM | volume 10.6KApr 5, 8:00 AM | volume 10.6KApr 5, 10:00 AM | volume 10.6KApr 5, 12:00 PM | volume 10.6KApr 5, 2:00 PM | volume 10.6KApr 5, 4:00 PM | volume 10.6K2026? | latest 74.0% Yes2026? | 3/31/2026, 4:00:00 AM | 36.0% Yes2026? | 3/31/2026, 5:00:00 AM | 36.0% Yes2026? | 3/31/2026, 6:00:00 AM | 36.0% Yes2026? | 3/31/2026, 7:00:00 AM | 36.0% Yes2026? | 3/31/2026, 8:00:00 AM | 36.0% Yes2026? | 3/31/2026, 9:00:00 AM | 36.0% Yes2026? | 3/31/2026, 10:00:00 AM | 36.0% Yes2026? | 3/31/2026, 11:00:00 AM | 36.0% Yes2026? | 3/31/2026, 12:00:00 PM | 36.0% Yes2026? | 3/31/2026, 1:00:00 PM | 36.0% Yes2026? | 3/31/2026, 2:00:00 PM | 36.0% Yes2026? | 3/31/2026, 3:00:00 PM | 36.0% Yes2026? | 3/31/2026, 4:00:00 PM | 36.0% Yes2026? | 3/31/2026, 5:00:00 PM | 36.0% Yes2026? | 3/31/2026, 6:00:00 PM | 36.0% Yes2026? | 3/31/2026, 8:00:00 PM | 36.0% Yes2026? | 3/31/2026, 10:00:00 PM | 80.0% Yes2026? | 4/1/2026, 12:00:00 AM | 80.0% Yes2026? | 4/1/2026, 2:00:00 AM | 78.0% Yes2026? | 4/1/2026, 4:00:00 AM | 78.0% Yes2026? | 4/1/2026, 6:00:00 AM | 78.0% Yes2026? | 4/1/2026, 8:00:00 AM | 78.0% Yes2026? | 4/1/2026, 10:00:00 AM | 78.0% Yes2026? | 4/1/2026, 12:00:00 PM | 78.0% Yes2026? | 4/1/2026, 2:00:00 PM | 78.0% Yes2026? | 4/1/2026, 4:00:00 PM | 78.0% Yes2026? | 4/1/2026, 6:00:00 PM | 78.0% Yes2026? | 4/1/2026, 8:00:00 PM | 78.0% Yes2026? | 4/1/2026, 10:00:00 PM | 78.0% Yes2026? | 4/2/2026, 12:00:00 AM | 78.0% Yes2026? | 4/2/2026, 2:00:00 AM | 78.0% Yes2026? | 4/2/2026, 4:00:00 AM | 78.0% Yes2026? | 4/2/2026, 6:00:00 AM | 78.0% Yes2026? | 4/2/2026, 8:00:00 AM | 77.0% Yes2026? | 4/2/2026, 10:00:00 AM | 77.0% Yes2026? | 4/2/2026, 12:00:00 PM | 77.0% Yes2026? | 4/2/2026, 2:00:00 PM | 77.0% Yes2026? | 4/2/2026, 4:00:00 PM | 77.0% Yes2026? | 4/2/2026, 6:00:00 PM | 77.0% Yes2026? | 4/2/2026, 8:00:00 PM | 77.0% Yes2026? | 4/2/2026, 10:00:00 PM | 77.0% Yes2026? | 4/3/2026, 12:00:00 AM | 77.0% Yes2026? | 4/3/2026, 2:00:00 AM | 77.0% Yes2026? | 4/3/2026, 4:00:00 AM | 77.0% Yes2026? | 4/3/2026, 6:00:00 AM | 77.0% Yes2026? | 4/3/2026, 8:00:00 AM | 77.0% Yes2026? | 4/3/2026, 10:00:00 AM | 75.0% Yes2026? | 4/3/2026, 12:00:00 PM | 75.0% Yes2026? | 4/3/2026, 2:00:00 PM | 75.0% Yes2026? | 4/3/2026, 4:00:00 PM | 75.0% Yes2026? | 4/3/2026, 6:00:00 PM | 75.0% Yes2026? | 4/3/2026, 8:00:00 PM | 75.0% Yes2026? | 4/3/2026, 10:00:00 PM | 75.0% Yes2026? | 4/4/2026, 12:00:00 AM | 74.0% Yes2026? | 4/4/2026, 2:00:00 AM | 74.0% Yes2026? | 4/4/2026, 4:00:00 AM | 74.0% Yes2026? | 4/4/2026, 6:00:00 AM | 74.0% Yes2026? | 4/4/2026, 8:00:00 AM | 74.0% Yes2026? | 4/4/2026, 10:00:00 AM | 74.0% Yes2026? | 4/4/2026, 12:00:00 PM | 74.0% Yes2026? | 4/4/2026, 2:00:00 PM | 74.0% Yes2026? | 4/4/2026, 4:00:00 PM | 74.0% Yes2026? | 4/4/2026, 6:00:00 PM | 74.0% Yes2026? | 4/4/2026, 8:00:00 PM | 74.0% Yes2026? | 4/4/2026, 10:00:00 PM | 74.0% Yes2026? | 4/5/2026, 12:00:00 AM | 74.0% Yes2026? | 4/5/2026, 2:00:00 AM | 74.0% Yes2026? | 4/5/2026, 4:00:00 AM | 74.0% Yes2026? | 4/5/2026, 6:00:00 AM | 74.0% Yes2026? | 4/5/2026, 8:00:00 AM | 74.0% Yes2026? | 4/5/2026, 10:00:00 AM | 74.0% Yes2026? | 4/5/2026, 12:00:00 PM | 74.0% Yes2026? | 4/5/2026, 2:00:00 PM | 74.0% Yes2026? | 4/5/2026, 4:00:00 PM | 74.0% YesE2E2 | $2B chasing Anthropic, $600M of OpenAI unsold: how secondary markets are repricing the AI race | raw: 4/4/2026, 7:05:38 PM | aligned: 4/4/2026, 8:00:00 PME1E1 | Rec Room shutdown, robot umps, torpedo bats, FedEx meets Amazon, and OpenAI’s odd media buy | raw: 4/4/2026, 2:21:29 PM | aligned: 4/4/2026, 2:00:00 PMS9S9 | OpenAI's Fidji Simo takes medical leave, announces leadership changes | raw: 4/3/2026, 8:21:29 PM | aligned: 4/3/2026, 8:00:00 PMS8S8 | OpenAI acquires TBPN, expanding its media footprint with a tech-focused talk show | raw: 4/3/2026, 1:35:13 PM | aligned: 4/3/2026, 2:00:00 PMS7S7 | OpenAI acquires TBPN, signaling a strategic media push to shape AI narratives | raw: 4/3/2026, 12:45:00 AM | aligned: 4/3/2026, 12:00:00 AMS6S6 | Why OpenAI's TBPN Deal is No Joke | raw: 4/3/2026, 12:04:25 AM | aligned: 4/3/2026, 12:00:00 AMS5S5 | Microsoft expands MAI model family in Foundry to developers: MAI-Transcribe-1, MAI-Voice-1, and MAI-Image-2 go live | raw: 4/2/2026, 8:07:00 PM | aligned: 4/2/2026, 8:00:00 PMS4S4 | OpenAI closes record $122 billion round at $852 billion valuation, opens door to retail investors for the first time | raw: 3/31/2026, 9:38:20 PM | aligned: 3/31/2026, 10:00:00 PMS3S3 | Why SoftBank’s new $40B loan points to a 2026 OpenAI IPO | 3/27/2026, 9:44:45 PMS2S2 | Apple Gives iPhone Designers Bonuses Up to $400K to Counter OpenAI Poaching | 3/26/2026, 11:28:00 PMS1S1 | OpenAI to shut down Sora 15 months after launch amid cost-cutting push | 3/24/2026, 11:14:41 PM

Colored lines: top market outcomes. Blue area: volume. Green markers: related storylines. Amber tags: evidence items.

Storyline markers
S9OpenAI's Fidji Simo takes medical leave, announces leadership changes | raw 4/3/2026, 8:21:29 PM -> aligned 4/3/2026, 8:00:00 PM Storyline detail
S8OpenAI acquires TBPN, expanding its media footprint with a tech-focused talk show | raw 4/3/2026, 1:35:13 PM -> aligned 4/3/2026, 2:00:00 PM Storyline detail
S7OpenAI acquires TBPN, signaling a strategic media push to shape AI narratives | raw 4/3/2026, 12:45:00 AM -> aligned 4/3/2026, 12:00:00 AM Storyline detail
S6Why OpenAI's TBPN Deal is No Joke | raw 4/3/2026, 12:04:25 AM -> aligned 4/3/2026, 12:00:00 AM Storyline detail
S5Microsoft expands MAI model family in Foundry to developers: MAI-Transcribe-1, MAI-Voice-1, and MAI-Image-2 go live | raw 4/2/2026, 8:07:00 PM -> aligned 4/2/2026, 8:00:00 PM Storyline detail
Evidence markers
E2$2B chasing Anthropic, $600M of OpenAI unsold: how secondary markets are repricing the AI race | raw 4/4/2026, 7:05:38 PM -> aligned 4/4/2026, 8:00:00 PM Source ↗
E1Rec Room shutdown, robot umps, torpedo bats, FedEx meets Amazon, and OpenAI’s odd media buy | raw 4/4/2026, 2:21:29 PM -> aligned 4/4/2026, 2:00:00 PM Source ↗
Market context

Signal log

  • Evidence: $2B chasing Anthropic, $600M of OpenAI unsold: how secondary markets are repricing the AI race | 4/4/2026, 8:00:00 PM | Source ↗
  • Evidence: Rec Room shutdown, robot umps, torpedo bats, FedEx meets Amazon, and OpenAI’s odd media buy | 4/4/2026, 2:00:00 PM | Source ↗
  • Storyline: OpenAI's Fidji Simo takes medical leave, announces leadership changes | 4/3/2026, 8:00:00 PM | Storyline detail
  • Storyline: OpenAI acquires TBPN, expanding its media footprint with a tech-focused talk show | 4/3/2026, 2:00:00 PM | Storyline detail
  • Storyline: OpenAI acquires TBPN, signaling a strategic media push to shape AI narratives | 4/3/2026, 12:00:00 AM | Storyline detail
  • Storyline: Why OpenAI's TBPN Deal is No Joke | 4/3/2026, 12:00:00 AM | Storyline detail
  • Storyline: Microsoft expands MAI model family in Foundry to developers: MAI-Transcribe-1, MAI-Voice-1, and MAI-Image-2 go live | 4/2/2026, 8:00:00 PM | Storyline detail
  • Storyline: OpenAI closes record $122 billion round at $852 billion valuation, opens door to retail investors for the first time | 3/31/2026, 10:00:00 PM | Storyline detail
  • Storyline: Why SoftBank’s new $40B loan points to a 2026 OpenAI IPO | 3/27/2026, 9:44:45 PM | Storyline detail
  • Storyline: Apple Gives iPhone Designers Bonuses Up to $400K to Counter OpenAI Poaching | 3/26/2026, 11:28:00 PM | Storyline detail